Forecast Awards. The Awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for the main macroeconomic
indicators across 87 countries worldwide in 2015. Details of the awards and the list of winners are available
To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the forecasts
submitted by over 350 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 24 months. Among
the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned international banks and economic research firms
such as BMI Research, Capital Economics, Citigroup Global Markets, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Oxford
BMI Research and Oxford Economics topped the list with 23 awards each for ranking in first place for the 6
main indicators in various countries. FocusEconomics warmly congratulates the winning analysts for their
high-quality research and for having provided the most accurate forecasts.
“The Analyst Forecast Awards demonstrate the outstanding work of the economic analysts on our panel. We
are pleased to recognize the accuracy of the forecasts and the value of economic research provided by the
institutions participating in our Consensus Forecast,” says Arne Pohlman, Chief Economist at
FocusEconomics surveys over 900 economic experts from national and international banks, top financial
institutions and economic research companies every month to obtain their projections for the main
economic indicators and elaborate the Consensus Forecast, which is the average of all individual forecasts.
To identify the best forecasters, we analyzed the forecasts submitted to our monthly survey over the course
of 24 months*. The model ranks forecasters according to the average of their discounted absolute errors.
Errors are defined as the absolute difference between an individual forecast and the 2015 result of the
macroeconomic indicator taken into consideration.
To be considered for the award, the panelist must have submitted a minimum number of forecasts over the
course of the period. We calculate forecast accuracy rankings for six main macroeconomic indicators (GDP,
Fiscal Balance, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Current Account) in 87 countries.
In addition to giving awards for each specific macroeconomic indicator mentioned above, we also provide
an overall ranking of the forecasts for the country, which is estimated by calculating the average ranking
across all the indicators.
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